Windows Mobile, while it may have plenty of shortcomings, is still one of the most popular mobile operating systems in use today.
However, there are many factors that may change that soon- Symbian is going open source, the iPhone is becoming “unlocked”, and Android’s release is imminent… So, what will happen to Windows Mobile in the near future? Will it dissapear completely from the mobile OS lineup, or will they simply be content with dropping to the 4th or 5th most popular OS? Or, will they adapt to the brave new world and emerge on top?

Fabrizio Capobianco, CEO and creator of Funambol (a multi-platform open source sync solution) recently wrote about this on his blog:

“In particular, I do not see a chance for Microsoft to be relevant in mobile OSS. Now that Symbian is gone open source, we have three open source operating systems (Symbian, Android and LIMO derivatives) that are going to dominate the market. On top of it, you have the iPhone. That’s 90% of the market easily in a few years. Windows Mobile will be left with less than 10%. Even if WM becomes free (they have to make that move and it will be so painful for them), I do not think they will win market share. Their motto will be “think different” :-))

Unless they do the unthinkable: make Windows Mobile open source. That would be an incredible move, one that I think they cannot do with Ballmer at the helm.”

I’m not so sure I agree with 100% of that. You see, OpenMoko and Linux Mobile have been around a while, and have largely been considered failures when it comes to market adoption.

Why?
I think it is because simply being open source is not enough. You need to have a large enough community backing an open source project for it to be successful, and sadly OpenMoko and LiMo don’t have that (…yet).
Windows Mobile, meanwhile, has a very large pre-existing development community (one that I consider myself a part of on occasion), which is why they will continue to sell handsets even if the new open platforms are more powerful theoretically.

The only mobile OS that I think is really going to give WinMo a run for its money is Google’s Android. Google is popular enough that any project they put their name on has an instant following (as I mentioned recently). Its very possible that Android will show the world we’re ready for an open mobile OS.

Now, what’s going to happen to MS?
Well, I don’t think its so crazy that MS will start adopting more open-source models, they’ve already started doing that with some of their projects. A decade ago, no one would have believed that there would be a page on Microsoft.com about their open source projects, but clearly they are recognizing that this is a necessary move to stay competitive. Microsoft has done crazier things in its past.*

But will Windows Mobile go open source?
Only time will tell. I think Fabrizio’s prediction is further away than he implies, but then again the mobile market changes so quickly anything is possible.

*Little known fact: Microsoft once wrote their own version of Unix in the early 80s. Stuff that makes you go hmmm…

-Mordy Gilden

This entry was posted on Wednesday, July 9th, 2008 at 1:12 pm and is filed under Cell Phones, Mobile Software, PDA's, Windows Talk, Open Source. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.